Joe Biden’s presidency is over. It’s now a half-dead
vessel, much like the man himself, but Democrats appear overjoyed that
Vice President Kamala Harris is taking the 2024 Democratic mantle,
though it’s not like Joe had much choice. He had to back Harris if he
bowed out. The disunity he sowed by remaining in the race led to an
unprecedented fracturing of the party not seen since 1968. Harris is the
only person who could legally inherit his war chest. If he couldn’t run
for a second term, maybe he could work on bringing the party back
together. Harris’ ascension has led to over $250 million in donations,
another damning sign that Biden likely would have run out of juice in
the final and most critical phase of the 2024 election.
Yet, NBC’s Steve Kornacki threw cold water on the Harris candidacy,
namely that she’s untested. She dropped out before the start of the
primaries in 2020; Tom Steyer’s campaign lasted longer than hers. She’s
also equally unpopular as Biden and owns the same record. Kornacki noted
that “hope” more than numbers is inflating Democrats’ hopes of keeping
the White House in November (via RealClearPolitics):
NBC's Kornacki: Idea That Kamala Harris Will Do Better Than Biden Is "Based More On Hope" Than Any Numbershttps://t.co/vkeO04Cr7g
"She
has not really been tested. Her name never got to a primary ballot in
2020. She dropped out a couple of months before that." pic.twitter.com/ubt6eM1gfm
There'd
be no real parallel for Biden exiting at this point. He's the
presumptive WH nominee (meaning: won needed delegates in primaries) and
no one in that position has withdrawn in the modern era. For that
matter, no major party WH nominee has ever dropped out.
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) July 2, 2024
Trump 47%, Harris 46%.
In the same set of polls, when it was Joe Biden, 47% for Trump and 45% for Biden.
The
Democratic number on average goes up from 45 to 46. I think it
underscores for Democrats, they view this move as something that's going
to improve their chances in the general election. That is based more on
hope than it is on the numbers right now.
You go another level
deep in this and you've got the favorable, unfavorable. The basic
impression people have of these candidates here. For Joe Biden, these
numbers have looked like this for a long time. Very, very bad numbers.
36% favorable, 57% unfavorable. Again, in an average of polls over the
last month.
What's the difference with Kamala Harris? Again, not
much of a difference. From 36% favorable to 38%, 57% unfavorable down to
52%. That's still a majority of voters saying they have an unfavorable
impression of Kamala Harris.
Throw up Donald Trump's numbers for
comparison, he's at 41% favorable, 55% unfavorable. All three of these
figures with a majority of voters saying that are unfavorably impressed
by them.
So, again, from the Democratic standpoint here, they
think Harris being reintroduced as a presidential candidate, getting a
different look, they think these numbers can improve for her, both in
the favorables and in the horse race against Trump. But we don't know.
As you say, she has not really been tested. Her name never got to a
primary ballot in 2020. She dropped out a couple of months before that.
Yet, Trump has a coalition where he could have an approval rating in
the 40s and still win due to how his base is distributed. Trump voters
live in areas where elections are decided. It’s something that David
Shor, a liberal data scientist, has mentioned, adding that the Trump
coalition is very efficiently distributed geographically. Harris has the
coasts and the Acela Corridor, and even they might become just as
depressed as they were with Biden once Harris devolves into a cackling
idiot, which is something that everyone knows, including Biden’s staff.
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