Dems Are Privately Admitting That Kamala Is Going to Lose

It’s a bit jarring that it took them this long, but better late than never. Or is it? On July 21, President Joe Biden decided he was too old and slow to run for another term. And by that, I mean every top Democratic lawmaker and donor pushed him out the door. Kamala Harris was installed as the new candidate. She got a bunch of money, re-energized the base, and is finishing this election not all that much better than Biden would have arguably. 

Less than two weeks from Election Day, the Kamala campaign has collapsed. She’s either tied or trailing former President Donald Trump, who will likely have his support base underestimated by pollsters. If you’re a Democrat, a tie with Trump is the kiss of death. It shows that you can have all the money in the world, if you’re a bad candidate it doesn’t matter much. For weeks, Harris has not answered questions regarding her legislative goals and how she’d be different from Joe Biden. That’s the least of it. With her campaign in freefall, Democrats are now resigned to a Kamala loss on election night (via Axios): 

A growing number of top Democrats tell us privately they feel Vice President Harris will lose — even though polls show a coin-toss finish 11 days from now. 

Why it matters: Democrats admit they tend to be hand-wringing, bed-wetting, doomsdayers. But what's striking is how our private conversations with Democrats inside and outside her campaign reveal broad concern that little she does, says — or tries — seems to move the needle.

Between the lines: We're not saying Harris is losing or will lose. An earlier "Behind the Curtain" column spelled out why this is toss-up America. 

Our reporting simply reflects scores of conversations with people close to Harris and intimately involved in swing-state races, including officials inside her campaign and top Biden administration officials.

Harris' rhetorical journey has mirrored Democratic moods — from "joy" over the summer to darkness this week, when she painted Trump as a dangerous fascist.

What we're hearing: In a troubling sign for the campaign, top Democrats are already starting to point fingers at who'd be more responsible for a Harris loss — President Biden for dragging his feet, or Harris herself. "Going down?" a top Democratic official texted. 

Democrats fear she has made too many different cases against Trump, and still hasn't fully revealed herself to voters, who crave to know more.

"She is who she is," one longtime Democratic strategist said. "Let's hope it's enough."

…Democrats once felt very good about Nevada, a state Biden won in 2020. But early voting has them panicked. Jon Ralston, the top Nevada election expert, writes that the surge in early rural Republican voting — a "rural tsunami" — is ominous for Harris: "There is no good news in these numbers for Dems." 

Pennsylvania continues to worry Harris, despite Biden winning there in 2020. Among the seven swing states, it's the one campaign insiders think she absolutely has to win, with signs of GOP momentum in the state's Senate race. 

We’re days away from the final showdown. Trump has regained the momentum. Keep grinding, vote, and let’s finish this—we have them on the run.

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