Republicans should keep the champagne on ice until the
election results are official and act like we’re trailing due to the
institutional goliaths we’re facing this election cycle—but one thing
cannot be denied: we’re in good shape to win the election. It’s not
over, but Joe Biden had a seven-point advantage over Trump in 2024.
There’s no pandemic. And Kamala Harris is irritating everyone. Even the
most ardent Trump-hater cannot deny that the former president is polling
better than ever. While it’s a tight race, Trump has reclaimed the advantage in Nate Silver’s Electoral College projection:
The Electoral College race remains as close to 50/50 as
it gets. But with some good polls for Trump entering our database today,
like a 2-point lead in a high-quality national poll and a big lead in
Georgia (though he trails in North Carolina in the same Quinnipiac
poll), if you squint at the probabilities, you’ll see Trump 50.2%,
Harris 49.5%. (There’s an 0.3% chance of a 269-269 tie).
That’s
not much different from yesterday’s forecast of Harris 50.3%, Trump
49.4%. But however nominal, it’s Trump’s first lead in our model since
Sept. 19. There’s a good chance that the lead will continue to shift
back and forth, akin to a 110-109 basketball game late in the fourth
quarter.
Kamala Harris’ stock has only gone down
since her media blitz. She lost five points in a month to Trump in NBC
News’ latest poll. Her favorability also took a near-10-point dip. She’s
massively underwater among core Democratic voter groups. It’s not
looking good, and we’re thankful that Harris is an abysmal candidate who
could never answer basic questions, like how she’d be different than
Joe Biden.
Silver’s explanation about whether Trump has momentum
is couched in elliptical language, as he’s covering all the bases.
However, he did not know that the blue wall is where Trump is no longer an underdog. That has to make Democrats nervous:
That’s not much different from Trump’s 49.4 percent
chances yesterday: the difference is that he wins the Electoral College
an additional 1 time out of 125. But Trump is past the 50-yard line —
and above Harris’s chances, which are 49.5 percent1 — for the first time
since Sept. 19. (Harris remains a clear but not overwhelming favorite
in the popular vote, but that’s not how American elections are
decided.)
[…]
I’ve already used the “m-word” twice —
momentum — without formally defining it, and the formal definition is
important. Does the fact that Trump’s chances have increased from 42
percent to 50 percent imply that they’ll continue to increase? Hold that
thought, though, because I think I owe you a rundown of where Trump’s
odds have improved. There are some pretty consistent patterns at the
state level:
It’s basically the Blue Wall states. Trump has gone
from being almost a 2:1 underdog in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania
at his nadir to close to 50/50 now. Outside of the Blue Wall (and
Florida) the changes are incremental. But the Blue Wall states have a
combined 61 percent chance of being the tipping-point state, so they
really take a bite out of Harris’s Electoral College chances. The
closest thing to a bright spot for Harris is North Carolina, which has
surpassed Wisconsin in tipping-point odds and could give Harris an out
if she loses one of the Blue Wall states (but probably not more than one
of them).
Democrats thought Kamala would be trouncing Trump—she isn’t. The Blue
Wall is starting to look vulnerable, with reports of a shambolic
operation in Pennsylvania. It’s why Joe Biden and Barack Obama seemed so
despondent at Ethel Kennedy’s funeral this week. Both men know this
isn’t an ideal position. The only question is whether Trump can close
the deal and whether there will be any shenanigans when the ballots are
counted.
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