This state was supposed to be as blue as the
Pacific by now. It’s why ideas like the national popular vote interstate
compact were mulled for a hot second. That’s no longer true because
public opinion is shiftable sand, and demography is not destiny. We were
warned that Florida was on the verge of slipping out of competitiveness
for Republicans.
One thing the political class never expected was Donald Trump coming
like a bat out of hell. Not only is Florida never being more Republican,
but Ohio, too. Both states, the source of heartburn for GOP pollsters
regarding national elections, are now safe red bastions. Trump has shown
that he can shatter the blue wall. What GOP candidate has given us that
opportunity? Trump won every swing state this cycle, and as Democrats
grapple with how to right the ship, the answer might be below the
Mason-Dixon Line.
The Sunshine State is where some in the
Democratic Party’s operative class feel that things must turn around if
they wish to remain a viable national party. As of now, with the census
and congressional reapportionment, it’s looking grim as red states are
also bound to gain more Electoral votes. Politico wrote
about how Florida is a microcosm of all the issues facing Democrats,
but there’s also a huge problem that the progressive base might not
like:
For those who’d been in denial, the 2024
election proclaimed Florida as a red state. The party got romped up and
down the ticket, and many of the same factors that affected the rest of
the U.S. were magnified here: Voters were deeply concerned about
immigration, inflation and the economy, and Republicans received strong
support from Hispanics.
[…]
If national Democrats ignore
the trends in Florida then they may very well be writing their own
obituary, party strategists in the state say.
“If you want to
elect presidents from 2032 on, we have to start winning states that we
are losing,” said Steve Schale, a Democratic strategist who successfully
helped former President Barack Obama win Florida twice. National
Democrats would need to invest in Florida and other southern states
because it would otherwise take a “crazy set of circumstances to win
Congress or the presidency,” he added.
Population growth leading
up to 2030, when the next census and reapportionment take place, could
deliver even more congressional seats — and Electoral College votes — to
Florida, Texas and other Republican-friendly states, while
Democratic-leaning behemoths of New York and California are poised to
lose ground. The bottom line? It may not be possible for Democrats in
future presidential cycles to get to 270 electoral votes without
reversing their fortune in the South.
The progressive base can no longer push its ‘woke’ action items, get
nutty about transgender stuff, and maintain this exclusionary,
anti-Semitic, and unhinged platform that has done nothing but turn
people away from the party. The GOP is now a multiracial working-class
party, which is not an easy coalition to beat using whatever Democrats
are trying to sell voters, which is soaked in condescension.
There’s
also the timeline many Democrats might not like: the time to turn
things around must start now because it could take as long as 25 years
to see tangible results if successful.
“I
don’t think this is a problem that unfortunately Florida Democrats can
fix on their own,” said Fernand Amandi, a Miami-based Democratic
pollster who worked on Obama’s successful campaigns in Florida, and
frequently dismissed claims that the state was in play for Democrats in
2024. “It will require the national party and national donors to look
hard in the mirror and say, ‘We cannot afford as a party to sacrifice
Florida.’”
But before any of that can happen, he said, Florida
Democrats have to do an autopsy that’ll take a hard look at who they
are, what they’re about, and why they’re coming across as a “toxic brand
to the state.” Then they can rehabilitate, rebrand and start recruiting
candidates around issues that voters tell them are priorities, he
added.
It won’t happen quickly. Longtime Florida Democratic
consultant Beth Matuga said a return to competitiveness for Democrats in
Florida may take 25 years — that’s how long it took Republicans to
build their now-massive advantage — and must start with a laser focus on
voter registration.
Have you seen how liberals have reacted to their 2024 loss? This is a party that still feels they’re better simply for being—that’s a sure way to lose voters. And Democrats have done that quite well.
The
South is their refuge, an area of the country they hate. It’s quite
clear that there aren’t enough insane white, wealthy, and
college-educated snobs to win nationally. Cope and seethe, Democrats—or
don’t. I wouldn’t mind 12 years or more of uninterrupted Republican
rule.
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