Ominous Signs for Democrats in New York

There's a seismic shift in New York politics. It may be because of the Democratic Party's continual dragging of their Overton Window to the left of Fidel Castro. It may be because of the anointment of Kamala Harris as the Democrat's catastrophic 2024 presidential candidate. It may be due to any number of things, but the fact is this: Democrat voter registration in the Empire State is dropping, and that doesn't bode well for Democrats there or nationwide.

There are cracks in the blue wall.

Democratic registration dropped 7% in New York City and 4% across the Empire State between 2020 and 2024 — the latest sign of disaffection with liberal policies that some pundits is fueling a national push to the right.

Democrats saw registration plummet 258,612 in the city from November 2020 to November 2024, when there were 3.4 million voters registered to the Democratic Party, according to Board of Election data. 

That accounted for much of the 271,322 statewide decline in party enrollment as the GOP saw a modest gain of 2%, or 67,483 voters, enrolled statewide — bringing Republican Party totals to slightly more than 3 million, according to the numbers.

There were 4,912 more enrolled Republicans in the city, to 573,644 total, the data show.

The recent election saw shifts all over the country. Donald Trump blasted through the Rust Belt states and shattered the Democrats' Blue Wall like the Kool-Aid Man. Several key demographics are trending more and more Republican — and plenty of members of those demographics live in New York.

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New York went handily for Kamala Harris in the presidential election, but the decline in registration, while still leaving the Democrats with a lead over Republicans, is starting to have an effect. The decline is starting to narrow elections.

President-elect Donald Trump drew 44% of the vote in blue New York to 56% for Vice President Kamala Harris, the highest vote for a Republican candidate in 36 years. Democrats nationwide are sifting through the carnage of losing the White House and both the House and Senate to the GOP.

In 2022, Democrat Kathy Hochul won the race for governor by just 6-percentage points — 53%-47% over Republican Lee Zeldin. Zeldin, a former House member, is now Trump’s nominee for Environmental Protection Agency secretary.

In the 2024 presidential election, in neighboring New Jersey, Donald Trump came within five points of Kamala Harris. That's remarkable; in 2024, whether it be due to Donald Trump's populist appeal or the leftward drift of the Democratic Party, New Jersey came close to becoming a swing state.

New Jersey.

New York will remain a blue state, of course, unless things shift a lot more than anyone could imagine. But remember this: As recently as 1984, New York went for a Republican in Ronald Reagan's 49-state landslide. But the shift in New York should still be making Democrats nervous. A small shift could tip the balance of the state legislature, and may even tip the next gubernatorial election if the GOP picks the right candidate.

This Thanksgiving weekend has been cold, with a weather system dropping snow and ice over much of the northeastern United States, but that's not what is sending chills down the spines of Empire State Democrats today.