Speaker Johnson Must Cross Volatile Minefield to Keep Job

Even with the backing of President-elect Donald Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., will have to successfully navigate a volatile minefield not even his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, faced as he seeks to maintain his leadership role when the 119th Congress convenes Friday.

With Republicans holding a razor-thin 217-215 House majority, Johnson will need 216 votes to secure the speakership for the next Congress, presuming every member is present and voting for a candidate.

But there is at least one Republican, Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., committed to voting against him. Plus, others are on the fence, and with Democrats set to vote for Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., the House could be paralyzed like it was at the start of the 118th Congress, when it took 15 ballots over four days for McCarthy to secure the speaker's gavel. Republicans had a wider 222-212 majority at the time.

Former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., who resigned from the House after Trump nominated him for attorney general, a nomination from which he withdrew, reportedly said he is concerned that a prolonged fight over a speaker could hold up Congress' certification of Trump's election victory, which is set to take place Jan. 6.

Massie posted Monday on X that he likens Johnson to former Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., who led the House during Trump's first term and was seen by many as an obstruction to implementing Trump's agenda.

"On January 3rd, 2017, Paul Ryan was elected Speaker by every Republican except me," Massie wrote. "Ryan went on to offer a fake repeal of ObamaCare, increased spending, backed the deep state, and didn't fund a wall. Two years later we lost the majority, and democrats made a living hell for Trump.

"Mike Johnson is the next Paul Ryan. On January 3rd, 2025, I won't be voting for Mike Johnson. I hope my colleague[s] will join me because history will not give America another 'do-over.'"

In another post Monday, Massie wrote: "I respect and support President Trump, but his endorsement of Mike Johnson is going to work out about as well as his endorsement of Speaker Paul Ryan. We've seen Johnson partner with the democrats to send money to Ukraine, authorize spying on Americans, and blow the budget."

At least five other lawmakers – Reps. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz.; Victoria Spartz, R-Ind.; Troy Nehls, R-Texas; Tim Burchett, R-Tenn.; and Josh Brecheen, R-Okla. — have reportedly made it known they are undecided on Johnson.

"I understand why President Trump is endorsing Speaker Johnson as he did Speaker Ryan, which is definitely important," Spartz posted Monday on X. "However, we still need to get assurances that @SpeakerJohnson won't sell us out to the swamp.

"President Trump will be able to save America only if we have a speaker with courage, vision and a plan – also public commitment to the American people how he will help deliver President Trump's agenda to drain the swamp."

Massie has not indicated who he would vote for as speaker, but if another Republican joins him in voting for someone other than Johnson, Johnson does not get the gavel because the speaker needs a majority of the vote. So, the House would vote again. The math becomes complicated if a member is absent or votes "present."

Should Massie vote for another candidate and another member votes "present," Johnson could still win because only 433 members would be voting. Therefore Johnson, with 217 votes, would gain the majority – and the speaker's gavel. Any absences among Republicans or Democrats could also change the number of GOP defections Johnson can afford, lowering the threshold needed to win.

Michael Katz ✉

Michael Katz is a Newsmax reporter with more than 30 years of experience reporting and editing on news, culture, and politics.

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