The Battle for the House Continues, but the GOP Is (Now) Handicapped

Well, the Tennessee House special election has come and gone, so it is time to turn back to the political battle for the U.S. House in 2026.

Democrat State Representative Aftyn Behn, 

 

whose radical positions have prompted her own party to label her “the AOC of Tennessee,” lost by a 9-point, 54 to 45 percent margin to Republican Matt Van Epps. This was much better for the GOP than the 2-point margin for Van Epps suggested by Emerson polling days earlier. This is a district that President Donald Trump carried by 22 points last year. Surprisingly, the turnout for this race was much better than expected, although the left-leaning areas still had higher turnout. The Trump campaign team seems to have put up a good defense, pounding Behn for her craziness and “reaching out to Gen Z on the platforms, podcasts, and streaming media where they hang out.”

 It is possible that a more moderate Democrat would have done better. But I tend to doubt it, based on the return of the Yellow Dog Democrat voter.  

After the mid-mid-term elections, the conventional wisdom on control of the House has flipped from “a coin flip” to a more traditional “out party” (e.g., Democrat) favored election. To hold the House, the GOP must avoid losing three or more (net) seats. Only twice in recent times has the majority party picked up seats in a midterm election. 

The GOP strategy includes: 1) push GOP redistricting; 2) minimize retirements; 3) spend big; 4) take primary challengers off the table; 5) raise gobs more money; 6) ramp up recruiting; and 7) push certain salient issues.

The GOP re-redistricting strategy has experienced some snags, but will still probably be a net positive:

• CA passed its redistricting, weakening the GOP, on the back of the state’s Democrats’ TDS, though that measure is being challenged in court;
• After TDS judges attempted to halt the GOP TX re-redistricting, the Supreme Court blocked it — this following a scathing dissent in that earlier decision characterizing it as “outrageous” and bought and paid for by “the James Bond villain” named George Soros;
• After the Democrats won in NJ and VA, both incoming governors have been pushing re-redistricting, although neither is guaranteed;
• FL is “barreling ahead” with its pro-GOP re-redistricting;
• After IN Republicans wimped out, Trump team pressure pushed through a re-redistricting bill in the state House, although its final passage is far from guaranteed;
• In KS and NE, Republicans also seem to have wimped out;
• In UT, the judge’s decision to implement a Democrat plan to create a new Democrat district is being appealed by the GOP;
• In MD, many Democrats are pushing to oust the lone GOP representative, although one powerful Democrat is opposed, and the judicial branch there had earlier said “no”;
• In MO, the Democrats are vainly hoping to overturn the recent re-redistricting that cost them a seat;
• In NC, the GOP accomplished a partial re-redistricting, which probably will cost a Democrat his seat; 

However, both parties are still waiting, on pins and needles, to see if the Supreme Court provides a boost to GOP House fortunes by outlawing racial gerrymandering in the South, which could cost the Democrats seats in AL, GA, LA, MS, SC, and even TX.

The GOP plan to minimize retirements has largely been a bust, with 21 of the 36 retirements being Republican. Most of the Republicans “retiring” are running for higher office, though.  

The GOP continues to have an edge in the fundraising battle, especially at the RNC v. DNC level, although the Democrats are spending more heavily at the NRCC v. DCCC level. The GOP also has just launched a new fundraising platform.

The GOP still has an edge on many of the salient issues. A Maris poll shows:

The Trump administration’s pivot to affordability is supported by the latest poll.  Asked what his top priority should be, 57 percent of American respondents said lowering prices, followed by 16 percent who said controlling immigration, 9 percent who said reducing crime, 7 percent who said ending the Ukraine-Russia war, 6 who percent said maintaining peace between Israel and Gaza, and 4 who percent said eliminating drug traffic from Latin America.

Obviously, the GOP has a long-time polling edge on controlling immigration, reducing crime, and combating drugs, all of which are very much in the news today.  

Meaning that the Republicans are smart to focus on inflation, which may yet be the “whole ballgame.”

Regarding individual House races, the GOP got a huge boost when Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) announced his retirement. The GOP candidate, former Gov. Paul LePage, becomes the favorite in the Republican leaning district, although I continue to be concerned about LePage’s advanced age and his electoral loss. But President Trump has pardoned Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX), which gives the Democrat an edge in his toss-up district over “a prized R recruit, party-switching Tano Tijerina.”  

Never let it be said that Donald Trump always acts in a partisan manner. (Of course, it will be said, but it won’t be the truth.) 

The GOP still has some work to do to implement a successful "strategery" to hold the House. They need to be effective in addressing the affordability issue. They should “seize on” and “personalize” a good campaign against a Democrat "demon." (Certainly, Mamdani will work in the NY/NJ area.) And they need to utilize the coming $2000 rebate and the mid-term convention to maximize the potential boosts to their candidates.

But "We'll (Just Have to) See What Happens."

Some final points:

• Donald Trump’s approval rating is down to 42.4 percent approval to 54.9 percent disapproval, which is in the danger zone. It has been in this zone since November 8^th.   However, he is ahead of where President Bush was at this point in his term. 
• It is unclear how President Trump’s status as a two-term-but-non-consecutive president will affect the normal vote patterns in House politics. It is quite possible that the GOP could use the Biden term to deflect negatives from the economy.
• The House is evenly divided, and has a boom or bust cycle, and the exact numbers that are won by the parties are often determined by the over- or under-exposure of the respective parties in the House.  And the GOP is NOT overexposed.