Cuba's Economy Grinds to a Halt As Russia and China Make Noises About Helping, but Fear Offending Trump

Russia announced it will limp to Cuba's rescue as the island bastion of communism in the Caribbean faces a complete economic breakdown due directly to President Trump cutting off black market Venezuelan oil supplies.

 Cuba has been an economic basketcase for decades, with its only exports being failed revolutionaries and miserable migrants. That situation changed markedly for the worse in early January when the U.S. military launched Operation Absolute Resolve; see Trump Announces Venezuelan Leader Nicolas Maduro and His Wife Captured Following ‘Large Scale’ US Strike – RedState. 

At first, Cuba was pretty defiant, but then they all are. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel chaired a National Defense Council meeting on January 18 to prepare for worsening economic conditions and fuel shortages. This was framed as part of preparations for a "war of all the people." It was soon obvious that President Trump had no intention of violating Rahm Emanuel's axiom: "Never let a crisis go to waste." The removal of Maduro and seizure of Venezuela's oil production facilities opened the door to getting rid of Cuba and its penchant for adventurism for once and for all. On January 29, President Trump signed an executive order titled, Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba – The White House.

To deal with the national emergency declared in this order, I determine that it is necessary and appropriate to establish a tariff system, as described below.  Under this system, an additional ad valorem duty may be imposed on imports of goods that are products of a foreign country that directly or indirectly sells or otherwise provides any oil to Cuba.  In my judgment, the tariff system, as described below, is necessary and appropriate to address the national emergency declared in this order.

See Trump Hits Cuba Hard: New National Emergency Declared, Tariffs Loom for Oil Suppliers – RedState for more details. 

Let's keep in mind the provisions of the executive order when considering current developments.

This week, Cuba entered the first stages of a failure cascade. On Wednesday, Cuba began shutting down.

The Caribbean island’s Communist authorities are rationing dwindling fuel supplies, curtailing public transportation and furloughing workers. Children are being sent home from school early, people can barely afford basic food like milk and chicken, and long lines have sprung up at gas stations.

Cuba’s crucial tourism industry is paralyzed. Some popular hotels, crippled by ongoing blackouts, have begun to shut down, ferrying remaining guests to other lodging, according to Russia’s tour-operator agency. 

Russia halted flights to Cuba and evacuated Russian "tourists" as Cuba announced that airplanes would have to bring their own gas if they expected to fly out of Havana; see Trump Oil Blockade Leaves Cuba Without Aviation Fuel, and That's a Good Thing – RedState, The UN, ever with a firm grasp of the obvious, warned of an economic and "humanitarian" collapse. The UN might do well to observe what this looks like as it prepares for its own collapse this summer; see UN Promises Bankruptcy by July Unless Trump Gives Lots of Cash – RedState.

According to Izvestia, help, of sorts, is on the way.

Russia plans to send a batch of oil and oil products to Cuba as humanitarian assistance, the Russian embassy in that country said.

Russia’s ministry of economic development has recommended Russian tourists refrain from visiting Cuba amid the "fuel emergency" in the country.

"In the near future, it is planned to deliver oil and oil products to Cuba as humanitarian aid," the embassy told the Izvestia daily.

Cuba requires 3 million barrels of oil per month just to sustain its existence. Domestic sources cover 30 to 40 percent of that target. Historically, the major suppliers are Venezuela and Mexico. Venezuela is not sending oil, and Mexico stopped deliveries on Monday. Russia's last oil shipment to Cuba was 100,000 barrels, delivered in February 2025.

The fact is that there is little Russia can do. To make up for Cuba's deficit, Russia would have to dispatch a supertanker to Cuba every month. That could be done, but the tanker would have to come from Russia's illegal "dark fleet" and be registered in Russia to avoid seizure. President Trump has already demonstrated that he won't tolerate the fake flag of convenience ploy, even when Russia is a party to it. If you recall, the Bella 1 changed to Russian registration while being pursued by the U.S. Coast Guard, and it didn't do them any good; Trump Sends a Powerful Message by Snatching Rogue Oil Tanker Under the Nose of the Russian Navy – RedState. Beyond the risk of seizure, every barrel of oil sent to Cuba is a barrel that is not funding Russia's four-year-old war in Ukraine. 

Russia also doesn't seem to think the game is worth the candle. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry "Pornstache" Peskov said, "We would not want any escalation, but, on the other hand, we currently don't have much trade [with the US], that is the reality." The unstated "reality" is that Trump is very unlikely to forget the Kremlin running oil to Cuba, and while there is, indeed, very little trade between the U.S. and Russia, there is also a sanctions bill that will really hit the Russian economy, working its way through Congress. Running oil to Cuba would guarantee that Trump not only signs the sanctions package but enthusiastically implements it.

China has also said it will help.

China has pledged continued support for Cuba as the island grapples with worsening fuel shortages, pushing back against what Beijing called external pressure on Havana.

“China firmly supports Cuba in safeguarding national security and sovereignty, and opposes external interference,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told reporters in Beijing on Tuesday. 

He said China would continue providing assistance and rejected what he described as moves that undermine the Cuban people’s right to basic subsistence and development.

That statement and $15 will get you a good cup of "fair trade" coffee at Starbucks.

The odds of China using its money to buy oil to ship to Cuba approach zero. In fact, China spending money to help anyone runs counter to the last two or three decades of Chinese behavior. I suppose China and Russia, working in concert, could send a Russian-flagged supertanker loaded with oil China paid for to Cuba monthly, but I don't see how that comes to pass.

The real question is how far is President Trump willing to push the Cuban regime? In my view, he's always far too willing to make a deal, but if he feels no deal is possible, as with Maduro, he will act. The first glimpse we'll get of what happens next in Cuba will be the departure of leading political figures. Either voluntarily, or with a black bag over their head, wearing flexicuffs, and riding in an MH-47 with Delta Force troopers.