New: Iran Is Already Blatantly Violating the Ceasefire, Large Missile Barrages Reported

Over 12 hours after an announced ceasefire in the conflict with Iran, whatever is left of the regime is already blatantly violating it. 

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See: Trump Claims Iran Peace Deal in the Making

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Israel faced multiple missile barrages in the hours following, despite being confirmed as part of the deal. Various Gulf nations also found themselves under attack, with Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain all reporting missile and drone strikes on their territory from Iran. 

Here's Fox News reporter Trey Yingst, who is based in the Middle East. 

Regarding that last note, Lavan Island is Iranian territory. Whether any actual attacks on the oil infrastructure there occurred is unknown, and that hasn't been reported anywhere else. The Iranian state media making those claims could simply be a cover to justify their breaking of the ceasefire. 

Several points come to mind here. One, while you could excuse a few stray missiles and drones in the immediate aftermath of the announced ceasefire, at some point, a ceasefire has to actually mean something. I think that point was well before the UAE came under yet another barrage today. Yes, it takes time to get the word out to underlings, but it doesn't take half a day. 

 

Two, there may be an attempt to claim that the Gulf nations aren't privy to the ceasefire, but that would be an insane position for Iran to take. The regime has repeatedly claimed its attacks on those countries are only a result of American operations originating from there. Well, those operations have stopped, so what's the excuse now? Still, we know Israel is party to the ceasefire, so none of this makes much sense. 

With that said, it's possible the Iranian regime is so splintered that the political elements who agreed to whatever this agreement turns out to be don't have the ability to call the military off. I tend to think that's less likely, though. If you were the Iranian regime and thought you could have your cake and eat it too, getting the benefits of a deal while still launching attacks under the guise of not being responsible, wouldn't you do so? If they can get away with playing both sides, they'll happily do it. Subversion is at their core. 

So what happens now? Probably not much, at least not immediately. I've been following Trump long enough to know he's going to want to do everything he can to preserve some semblance of this ceasefire, and he tends to become very forgiving in these scenarios. Whether he should be will be a hotly debated point of contention. For my money? I wouldn't bet on any of this deal turning out well. The Iranians aren't going to suddenly become benevolent business partners in the Middle East, and right now, they think they've just won a major victory.