The 2026 Battle for the Senate Is Still Likely Republican

Politico continues its dogged faux “reporting” to create a narrative that Democrats are a lock to control the U.S. Senate in 2026. Which gives me a great opening to make one of my periodic updates on some of the crucial Senate races. The Republicans have a 53 to 47-seat majority in the Senate. There are 35 seats up for grabs in 2026. The Democrats need a net pick up of four seats to win control.

The central problem for the Democrats is that only two Republican seats – Maine and North Carolina – are in competitive states. The other 20 GOP seats are in states where Donald Trump won by double digits. That almost never happens in Senate elections, let alone twice. In the 2025 Virginia elections, the Democrats won a landslide, but they still didn’t carry a single district where Trump won with that margin. 

The Democrats also must not lose any of their own competitive seats. And in the blue wave of 2018, the Democrats still lost in an upset for their incumbent in Florida. 

The GOP is going to have a yuge edge in funding, with the RNC, NRSC, the Senate Leadership Fund, and the MAGA Pac together swamping the Democrats.

Finally, another tell that the Democrats are underdogs for the Senate is that they have gone all in for their “Sneaky New Trick – The Indy Imitation Game.”

 But let’s go to some recent updates:

Alaska: Dan Sullivan / 54% R / Lean R

Former statewide elected Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola is challenging incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. The RCP average has the two deadlocked, although it does not include the numerous Alaska Survey Research polls, which consistently show a solid Peltola edge. This may be because the ASR polls have a reputation for being “left-Center biased.” Although Peltola is universally known and generally liked in Alaska, 1) she was beaten as an incumbent Congresswoman by a weaker candidate than Sullivan; 2) she only won her two victories over the very unpopular Sarah Palin; and 3) Sen. Sullivan is a well-liked incumbent with no obvious weaknesses. Both candidates will have plenty of money. Alaska has a weird Ranked Choice Voting system – created to protect renegade Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski – so it is unclear which candidate has the edge from that (although it may be Peltola). But Sullivan should still be the favorite.

Georgia: Jon Ossoff / 50.61% D / Leans D 

On May 19, Georgia had its primaries, and the Republican field to oppose Sen. Jon Ossoff shrunk from three to two, to continue to the June 16 runoff. Rep. Mike Collins (GA-10) seems to have a solid polling edge in RCP over Coach Derek Dooley, who is backed by Gov. Kemp, as my fellow RedStater has reported. The two have about equal money right now, but both heavily trail Sen. Ossoff, who has had gangbuster fundraising – for months, I could not watch music videos at the gym without seeing Ossoff ads pleading for money. Collins has had some scandal issues, but he is also considered more MAGA than Dooley, although the president has not endorsed yet. Georgia has a weird electoral system, too, with a runoff after the November 3, 2026, election, which may help the Democrats. Regardless, Ossoff is the favorite at this junction, although his left-wing record opens him up to criticism in a Republican leaning state. 

Iowa: Joni Ernst (retiring) / Lean R

GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson has the privilege of raising boatloads of money while watching an unfolding June 2 Democrat primary fight between the Bernie Bro candidate Zach Wahls and the Democrat establishment's choice, Josh Turek. Which Democrat has the primary edge is pretty much the choice of which group is polling the race. The Democrat winner is likely to be the underdog in the general, despite Democrat optimism, as President Trump won the state by double digits, and Rep. Hinson represents one of the three competitive districts, which she has convincingly locked down, while the fourth district is heavily Republican.

Maine: Susan Collins / 50.98% R / Tilt R

The fake working class, Nazi Democrat in Maine, Graham Platner, has established a polling edge over moderate Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Just like her less crazy Democrat opponent from six years ago did. But prominent Democrats are increasingly worried, including a Democrat Congressman from Massachusetts who has called Platner’s radicalism “disqualifying.” Among some of the recent Platner crazy statements that have come out is his call for the death of a hero Army veteran in Afghanistan, and his slander of another war hero, the deceased Chris Kyle, whom Platner accused of slaughtering civilians to boost Kyle’s kill count. My Redstate colleague has also written about Platner’s factually untrue statement that Collins “voted to send me to Iraq.” Because of Platner’s falsehoods, in the latest polls, the 40 percent of the state that is made up of independent voters has turned against him. It also seems likely that some of the polling in the state has a left-wing bias. Despite the polling, there is no question in my mind that Sen. Collins is the favorite for this seat, again. 

Michigan: Gary Peters (retiring) / Lean D

While the Republican candidate, former Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost the 2024 Senate race, raises money and waits, the Democrats are still facing a competitive three-way primary. Bernie Bro and Radical Muslim Abdul El Sayed seems to have established the primary edge in the RCP, but he also performs the worst against Rogers. The establishment favorite, Rep. Haley Stevens (MI-11), is being hindered by her lack of a visceral hatred towards Israel and her debate screwup on the filibuster. If El Sayed wins the primary, he will join the crazed Jew-haters team that the Democrats are assembling throughout the country, including the Nazi in Maine and the Al-Qaeda member in a New Jersey House Race. Unfortunately for him, he will be running in a much less Democrat leaning area than the others nuts.

Texas: John Cornyn (defeated in the primary) / Lean R

On May 26, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton crushed – with huge turnout – incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff. Although Paxton has his own issues, this result should not be unexpected, as Cornyn really shouldn’t have run again. (Incumbents often have a hard time knowing when to quit – see my former boss, Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter.) The Democrats are once again confident of victory – despite Wendy Davis, Beto O’Rourke, and Colin Allred, etc. – this time with state Rep. James Talarico. Talarico is a fundraising powerhouse whose ads are now popping up to me repeatedly at the gym. Talarico also leads in the polling, although pollsters tend to undervalue Republican support in Texas. However, Talarico is a far-left crazy, which Paxton has already begun exposing in the media, and Talarico is already being forced to explain his statements, which is always a bad sign. Also, Talarico will have problems getting out his necessary black voters, and the GOP is already uniting behind Paxton.