Oh, the GOP Just Got Some Very Good News About the 2026 Midterms...

The good news is that the Democratic Party isn’t gaining momentum as we reach the dog days of summer. The bad news is that we still have a long way to go until Election Day. A new phase of the conflict with Iran has begun, prices could rise, and the issue of affordability might once again hurt President Trump and the Republican Party’s numbers. Even before this latest generic poll was released, the president needed to boost his favorable ratings, and gas prices had to come down. There’s no alternative here: the price must come down. Full stop. But we digress. 

RealClearPolitics’ election analyst Sean Trende posted something yesterday that probably irritated liberals. He believes soft Republicans are returning, but right now, we’re in a place where it’s not unlikely that Republicans win the House:

The RCP Average generic ballot has gone from D+8 to D+5 over the past six weeks. Probably just inevitable "Soft Rs coming home" but this starts to get into territory where it is conceivable that Rs hold the House.

— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) July 15, 2026

I should add that I think the system can handle a party winning the popular vote by a point or so but losing the House. But if it stretches to a 3-4 point differential, which is may, it is going to be ugly.

— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) July 15, 2026

(saying 53-47D is usually statistically indistinguishable from 52.5-47.5D) and you can see this tightening repeated in apples-to-apples comparisons across multiple polls. Something is happening. I think it's just soft Rs returning, but it's worth noting.

— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) July 15, 2026

Don’t pop champagne or get too excited, but it’s worth watching. In North Carolina, a Democratic firm, Public Policy Polling, found that former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, once very popular, is leading Republican and former RNC chair Michael Whatley by only four points. Even PPP admits the GOP has a chance to win here—Whatley needs to boost his name recognition, which he’s trying to do by completing a 100-county tour of the state. A GOP win here would almost end Democrats’ long-shot hopes for the Senate. The House was more likely to flip, but even that remains uncertain. 

The Democrats lack a clear message beyond ‘we hate Trump,’ and they have no solid agenda. Their brand is weak, and their polling numbers are poor. Their leaders are unpopular, and now they’re dealing with a socialist insurgency that further complicates messaging efforts, while possibly draining resources needed to defend candidates seen as more electable and incumbents. Oh, and the Democrats are almost broke.