Big News in the Battle for the Senate Leaves the GOP Still on Top

I didn’t expect to do another update in the 2026 Battle for the U.S. Senate so soon. But there has been some recent big news, overall favoring the GOP. 

As reported by Redstate, GOP pollster Patrick Ruffini conducted a study of summer polls and found a significant Democrat bias – “the average polling error across all polls was D+3.7, and 73% of polls released overstated the Democrat relative to the election result. Again, that’s across more than 3,000 polls, so that’s hardly just statistical noise.” This has been going on for at least the past six cycles. 

This bias should be ending just about now. 

Of course, it has been known since at least the late 80’s that Democrats experienced polling bumps during the summer. It was often theorized that Republicans were on vacation. One frequently referred to example occurred in July of 1988, when then-Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis held a 17-point edge over then-Vice President George H. W. Bush in the presidential race, only for Bush to easily triumph in the end.

 

Some other polling problems have also recently been underlined. Pollsters continue to have a major problem in over-measuring the intensely motivated, highly educated, left-wing, white (especially female) voters, who are bolstering the DSA in the primary and the Democrats in the general. This was shown again in the Michigan Senate primary. Also, Median Strategies, a polling firm, was found to have promoted fake polls pushing progressive candidates for a “social experiment.” 

This was not the first time a left-wing firm was found to be producing fraudulent polls. 

In the upper chamber, the Republicans have a 53-to-47-seat majority, with 35 seats up. The Democrats need a net pickup of four seats to win control. But only two Republican seats – Maine and North Carolina – are in competitive states. The other 20 GOP seats are in states Donald Trump won by double digits. Picking up a double-digit seat for the opposite party rarely happens, let alone twice. Only once, in modern times - in 2010 - did the GOP win three such seats. While some Senate polls are showing the Democrats leading in some of these states, CNN also has some contradictory evidence - a generic poll that shows Republicans have a 6-point lead in 6 key races, including the double-digit states of AK, IA, OH, and TX. 

In the 2025 Virginia elections, the Democrats won in a landslide, but they didn’t carry a single state legislative district where Trump won with that margin. 

The GOP will have a huge money edge overall, although most Democrat candidates are outraising their Republican foes. 

But, on to the races:

Alaska: Dan Sullivan / 54% R / Tilt R

 

In the jungle RCV primary on August 18, Democrat former Rep. Mary Peltola won 48 percent of the vote, and incumbent Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan had 43 percent, with the third spot going to the fake Republican challenger, Dan J. Sullivan. The fourth spot went to a progressive Democrat. However, in 2024, Peltola won a 51 percent majority in the primary only to be ousted from the House in the general. Strangely, Peltola fired two staffers right before the primary, which is never a good sign for a campaign. The Democrats, of course, are trying to rig the election, having assisted fake Republican Dan J. Sullivan’s efforts. As a result, a Justice Department grand jury is investigating. The RCP average still shows incumbent Sullivan with a two-point advantage. But because of the actual primary results, I am moving this race from Lean R to Tilt R. 

Michigan: Gary Peters (retiring) / Toss-Up

 

Abdul El-Sayed, another crazed radical Muslim socialist - although he disputes the socialist part - is facing off against former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers (MI-08), who narrowly lost the 2024 Senate race. The current RCP average shows El-Sayed up by a single point. However, besides recent polling, nothing has gone well for El-Sayed. The polls prior to the primary election were shown to be substantially biased in his favor, and his narrow win demonstrated weaknesses with heavily Democrat voting blocs like black voters, the working class, and Jewish voters. Rogers has attracted some cross endorsements by prominent Democrats, including former Special Assistant to President Biden, Michael LaRosa, Michigan state Rep. Karen Whitsett, and a prominent Rabbi, Asher Lopatin. Democrat Sen. John Fetterman, and even James Carville himself, have criticized El-Sayed. 

El-Sayed has made a number of increasingly dumb statements: supporting Sharia law; involving the Vice President’s wife in a dispute with the VP; comparing himself and his policies favorably to Jesus; and crudely associating himself with African-Americans. It has been shown that much of El-Sayed’s family is made up of radical left-wing Muslims, with two members of his family allegedly having actual terror connections, and his bookshelf is replete with radical texts. Of course, he himself also associates with Mao-loving radical Muslim Hasan Piker and other crazies. Considering El-Sayed is a target-rich environment for Mike Rogers, and Rogers’ forces will likely have a spending edge, I have had to move my ranking all the way from Lean D to Toss-Up. Basically, El-Sayed can only win if Rogers makes a big mistake, or the Democrat tide gets too large and pulls El-Sayed into office. 

Minnesota: Tina Smith (retiring) / Likely D

 

The Democrat primary produced the weaker candidate as the nominee, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. Flanagan is known for being part Native American and holding down the farthest left position on the political spectrum. The Republicans have chosen former TV sportscaster Michelle Tafoya. The RCP average has Flanagan up 46.5 percent to 41 percent. Tafoya leads Flanagan with more than $1.3 million in cash on hand, compared to more than $1 million. As Redstate has reported, Minnesota was Ground Zero for fraud under the Walz-Flanagan administration, and Tafoya may be able to make hay of that corruption. Although I am tempted to move the ranking here, because Minnesota is a light but consistently blue state with a long string of narrow GOP losses since 2006, I just can’t (yet) justify it. 

North Carolina: Thom Tillis (retiring) / Lean D

 

Democrat former Gov. Roy Cooper is still outraising former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley. He still leads Whatley in the RCP average by a solid 8-point margin. However, it is likely that the GOP and its allies will counterbalance Cooper’s money advantage. In the new century, the GOP has dominated Senate races in this state, with only one Democrat winning in 2008. But Cooper has won statewide 6 times, for state offices, despite frequently experiencing adverse coattails. Cooper does have some major weaknesses, from his soft-on-crime policies and his sanctuary record. The Senate Leadership Fund has already “pounced” on these weaknesses, and we can expect Whatley to follow. I strongly suspect that the eventual Iryna Zarutska attack ad from Whatley will be akin to the celebrated 1988 Willie Horton ad. Because there is no net change here, this race stays Lean D.