Primaries Tuesday
showed
the power of President Trump’s endorsements continued to help
Republican candidates triumph, while House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi,
D-Calif., lost a key lieutenant – Rep. Joe Crowley – in a New York City
race that suggests internal divisions among Democrats are more serious
than people might think.
In addition, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the
2012 GOP presidential nominee who lost to President Obama, staged a
political comeback by easily winning the Republican nomination for a
U.S. Senate seat in Utah held by the retiring Republican Orrin Hatch.
Romney seems headed for victory in November in the heavily Republican
state.
Democratic divisions between the leftist insurgents who
backed Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont in his unsuccessful campaign
against Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination in
2016 make it less likely that a big, blue wave is coming that will sweep
Democrats to majority control in the House and Senate.
The insurgents have the potential to change the
Democratic Party over the long term into something more in line with
left-leaning parties in Europe, rather than continuing to remain within
the uniquely American spectrum where both parties agree to one degree or
another that market forces should continue to play a role in setting
economic policy.
President Trump’s job approval numbers are holding
steady somewhere in the mid-40s. The percentage of voters who feel the
country is on the right track is now up near 40 percent – double where
it was at the beginning of the year.
The only way this feels like it’s a “change election”
is on the Democratic side, where younger voters and women seemed
determined to “Bernie-fy” the party and have it stand for such things as
rolling back the Trump tax cuts, free college for all, Medicare for all
and – in essence – a transformation of the United States into a
full-blown version of a European-style welfare state.
That pitch might work in the big cities, which seem to
be the only power base the party of the Clintons and Obama has left. But
it’s not clear that voters in the suburbs and rural areas will vote for
candidates on the far left.
And, thanks to the recent outburst from liberal
entertainers and U.S. Rep. Maxine Waters – who has urged those on the
left to harass Trump administration officials wherever they might be
found – the Democrats may be in the process of losing whatever advantage
they might have had on the civility question. That might actually be
one place where President Trump is truly vulnerable.
In New York City, voters in 56-year-old Democratic Rep.
Crowley’s Queens congressional district tossed him out in favor
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a 28-year-old former Bernie Sanders organizer.
Ocasio-Cortez represents both a generational and ideological shift in
one of the city’s more moderate boroughs.
The defeat of Crowley, the chairman of the House
Democratic Caucus and a potential successor to Pelosi, suggests the
divisions between the older liberals currently running the party and
young insurgents who transferred their allegiance from President Obama
to Bernie Sanders in 2016 may be deeper and more permanent that many
analysts believed. That spells bad news for Democrats in the November
election.
In addition to the surprise defeat of Crowley in New
York, a closely watched race in the state saw the winner of a House
Republican primary on New York City’s Staten Island helped by an
endorsement from President Trump. Rep. Dan Donovan, who had the
president’s backing, defeated former GOP Rep. Michael Grimm. Grimm’s
campaign – claiming his conviction on tax fraud charges that forced his
resignation from Congress was the result of a kind of “deep state”
conspiracy – proved unpersuasive.
In New York’s 24
th Congressional District
near Syracuse, Democrats nominated Syracuse University Professor Dana
Balter as their candidate against Republican Rep. John Katko. While New
York Republicans are thought to be an endangered species, Katko – who
won re-election to second term in 2016 with 61 percent of the vote – is
the only one occupying a district carried by Hillary Clinton in the
presidential electioni.
In other primary results:
UTAH
Romney’s nomination is interesting, as pundits – at
least those on the GOP side – say he’s running to become the voice of
opposition to Trump from within the party. That would mean taking over
the role now played by Arizona Republican Senators Jeff Flake, who is
retiring after a single term, and John McCain, who battling brain
cancer.
Even if that’s true, that’s a dubious proposition.
Romney was never as intrinsically popular among Republicans who
supported him as Trump is among his supporters.
Any love the Republican rank and file felt for Romney
was based on his winning the nomination to go up against President
Obama, whom Republicans greatly desired to see beaten.
The former Massachusetts governor may think he has some
kind of moral authority that can act as a temporizer to President
Trump’s excesses, but that’s only if his audience is the New York Times,
CNN and the rich elites who accepted him as one of their own in a way
they will never accept Trump.
SOUTH CAROLINA
Republican South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster, who was
endorsed by President Trump, turned back a challenge from businessman
and first-time candidate John Warren to win the GOP nomination for
governor in a runoff.
McMaster – who was lieutenant governor until he
replaced Gov. Nikki Haley when she became America’s U.N. ambassador –
was one of the first statewide elected officials anywhere in America to
endorse Donald Trump for president. The president repaid the favor by
traveling to the state for a last-minute “get out the vote” rally for
McMaster Monday night.
MARYLAND
In Maryland, former NAACP President Ben Jealous
defeated Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker and will face
GOP Gov. Larry Hogan in the fall. Jealous promised to run a Sanders-like
campaign against the popular Hogan, who the polls indicate is an early
favorite for re-election. This makes him something of a rarity in the
heavily Democratic state.
In the contest for U.S. Senate in Maryland, incumbent
Democrat Ben Cardin easily won re-nomination against six opponents,
including Chelsea Manning, a former U.S. Army solider convicted of
leaking sensitive information and later pardoned by President Obama
after serving seven years of a 35-year sentence.
MISSISSIPPI
In Mississippi, Democrat David Baria emerged from the
runoff as the winner for the right to take on Republican incumbent U.S.
Sen. Roger Wicker in the November election in something akin to a
quixotic challenge.
In the state’s 3
rd Congressional District,
Republican Michael Guest defeated Whit Hughes in the runoff for the seat
held by retiring GOP U.S. Rep. Greg Harper.
COLORADO
In Colorado, progressive Democratic multi-millionaire
Jared Polis and Republican Walker Stapleton, a member of the Bush
political dynasty, will face off against one another in the race for
governor.
In the race for Polis’ open congressional seat the
Democrats nominated attorney Joe Neguse, whose campaign relied heavily
on his life story – he is the son of African refugees – to make a
personal connection with voters.
In the state’s 6
th Congressional District,
conservative GOP Rep. Doug Lamborn beat back four challengers to win
renomination for a seventh term representing the residents of Colorado
Springs and its environs.
OKLAHOMA
In Oklahoma, Republican former Oklahoma City Mayor Mick
Cornett and former state Attorney General Drew Edmondson emerged from a
multi-candidate field to win their respective party nominations for
governor.
In the heavily Republican 1
st Congressional
District in Tulsa, the GOP’s Tim Harris won the nomination in the race
to follow former Rep. Jim Bridenstine, now the NASA administrator, into
Congress.
Overall, the primaries Tuesday saw few surprises – with
the exception of Crowley’s stunning upset – and saw no clear trends
emerging save for the continued popularity of President Trump among
Republicans in Republican areas.