It’s finally here.
After
hundreds of campaign rallies, billions of dollars in donations, a
nonstop blitz of TV advertising and polling that’s been in full swing
since summer, Election Day has arrived – and with it, voters’ midterm
verdict on whether Republicans should hold or lose their grip on power
in Washington.
Democrats have been working toward this day since
the moment President Trump was sworn in. They’ve waited two long years
for the shot to win enough seats in Congress to cripple the 45th
president’s agenda.
In the end, the elections will go one of three
ways: Republicans hold both chambers, Democrats take the majority in
both, or the parties split the House and Senate. Either of the latter
two scenarios would be problematic for Trump, immediately putting a
damper on his agenda.
By the numbers, 35 Senate seats, 36
gubernatorial seats and 435 House seats are up for grabs on Tuesday. And
the biggest names in both parties say the stakes couldn’t be higher.
“America
is at a crossroads right now,” former President Barack Obama told
supporters in Illinois over the weekend, saying it “might be the most
important election of my lifetime, maybe more important than 2008.”
Trump
himself has been campaigning non-stop in recent days, telling voters
they must keep Democrats from taking back control of the House and
Senate, or his agenda could be in jeopardy. The party of the president
has historically lost seats in their first midterm elections.
“We
have to win,” Trump told supporters Monday during a telephone town hall,
ticking off accomplishments during his first years in office and
warning everything he’s accomplished as president can be “undone and
changed by the Democrats.”
Here’s the lay of the land on Election Day:
- For
Democrats, their best shot at winning back control of a body of
Congress is in the House, where they need to net 23 seats for a
majority. Whether they flip the House or not, Democrats are still
expected to gain seats in the chamber, given the favorable political
environment for Democrats.
- Republicans currently hold a slim
51-49 majority in the Senate, and Democrats have long aimed to win back
control. But it will be more difficult for Democrats to be victorious in
the Senate by netting two seats in part because of the large number of
incumbent Democrats running for re-election in states won by Trump in
2016.
- Republicans currently control 33 governorships, with
Democrats holding 16. But with 36 seats up this year, Democrats are
likely to pick up at least some seats. According to the Fox News
Gubernatorial Power Rankings, Republicans are favored to control at
least 22 seats by the end of the night and Democrats are favored have at
least 20 seats, with 8 additional toss-up races.
Election
watchers could be in for a long time. The first polls, on the East
Coast, close at 7 p.m. ET. After polls on the West Coast close at 11
p.m. ET, the last will close in Alaska at 1 a.m. ET.
Ahead
of the vote, House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi confidently predicted
last week that Democrats would indeed win back the House.
“Let me
say this. Up until today, I would’ve said, ‘If the election were held
today, we would win,’” Pelosi said on “The Late Show with Stephen
Colbert” Tuesday. “What now I’m saying is, ‘We will win.’”
But
there are no guarantees about Election Day, even as generic
congressional ballots show Democrats with the advantage over
Republicans. While Democrats need to net 23 seats for a majority, the
Fox News House Power Rankings indicate there are 29 “toss-up” races.
If
Democrats are victorious, the Trump administration likely will be in
for a challenging 2019. Should Democrats re-take the House, there are
signs some in the conference may launch a push to impeach the president –
though the leadership has not yet backed the effort. Pelosi has said
impeachment is "not a priority," at least not until Special Counsel
Robert Mueller announces the conclusions of his probe into the Trump
administration's alleged dealings with Russia.
Trump, though,
almost assuredly will face an avalanche of investigations into his tax
returns, his payments to adult-film star Stormy Daniels and his
relationship with Russia if Democrats win back the House – which comes
with the much-coveted power to subpoena and launch congressional
investigations.
PRESIDENT TRUMP'S CLOSING ARGUMENT: VOTE REPUBLICAN AND CONTINUE THE JOBS BOOM
A
number of prominent anti-Trump Democrats also would be poised to assume
control of key committees if Republicans lose control of the House.
Rep.
Maxine Waters, D-Calif., likely would be elevated to chairwoman of the
House Financial Services Committee, where she currently serves as
ranking member. Another top California Democratic representative, Adam
Schiff, would likely rise to chair the House Intelligence Committee,
where he is now the ranking member. And Pelosi would look to regain the
speakership.
Still, if Democrats win the House – but Republicans hold the Senate – their legislative priorities likely would stall.
In
the Senate, the Fox News Senate Power Rankings lists Florida, Indiana,
Missouri, Arizona and Nevada as the five most competitive races. Of
those races, Democrats in three states won by Trump are defending their
seats.
Republicans feel more confident about keeping control of
the Senate – or possibly adding to their majority. But the threat to the
Trump agenda is real if they lose control. Democrats have a narrow path
to the majority if they run the table in the toss-ups and pick off one
GOP-favored seat, like Texas or Tennessee. If Democrats win control of
both houses of Congress, they could send legislation to Trump’s desk.
And, in the Senate, they would have the votes to block any of Trump's
nominees – coming after Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s brutal confirmation
fight last month.
On the day before America votes, Trump hopscotched to rallies in three battleground states -- in Ohio, Indiana and Missouri.
In
Ohio, Trump campaigned for a slate of Republicans, including Jim
Renacci in his bid to unseat Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown. Trump won the
state with 52 percent of the vote in 2016 but the Fox News Senate Power
Rankings lists that contest as “likely Democrat.”
Later Monday,
the president flew to Fort Wayne, Indiana, where he is hoping to give
Republican Mike Braun an assist to defeat incumbent Democratic Sen. Joe
Donnelly. He then traveled to Missouri to lend a hand to Josh Hawley in
his campaign to beat incumbent Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill.
Meanwhile,
in state capitals across the country, Republicans have control of a
majority of governorships, holding 33 to the Democrats’ 16 seats.
Democrats
are likely to pick up at least some seats, with 36 gubernatorial seats
up for grabs this year. According to the Fox News Gubernatorial Power
Rankings, 15 of the contested seats lean Republican, 13 lean Democrat
and eight are tossups.
For Republicans, holding on to control of
state houses is important, considering that’s where real policy changes
may take place if Democrats win control of Congress and Washington
effectively deadlocks.
Among the most-watched races: Wisconsin GOP
Gov. Scott Walker is locked in a tight re-election battle with
Democratic challenger Tony Evers and Tallahassee Democratic Mayor Andrew
Gillum is facing off against Trump-backed GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis in
Florida.
Though the political environment seems to favor
Democrats, Trump argued Monday that Republican voters are energized
heading into Tuesday’s vote, saying he hasn’t felt such “electricity”
since he was elected president in 2016.
"Tomorrow, with your votes, you can stop the radical resistance in its tracks," Trump told the crowd in Cleveland.
Fox News’ Gregg Re contributed to this report.
