J. Ann Selzer, Pollster Who Predicted Harris Would Win Iowa, Retires Following Huge Miss

Voters cast their ballots November 2, 2004 at the Dubuque County Fair Grounds in Dubuque County, Iowa. Iowa is a swing state both presidential candidates are hoping to win.

J. Ann Selzer, pollster who predicted Kamala Harris would win Iowa, has retired following a huge miss. 

On Sunday, Selzer announced her departure in a guest op-ed for The Des Moines Register and stated that she is planning to transition “to other ventures and opportunities.” 

“Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course. It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite,” Selzer wrote.

The Saturday before Election Day, Selzer had released a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll in which she had projected Vice President Kamala Harris 3 points ahead of President-elect Donald Trump in the race for the state’s six electoral votes. 

The prediction was a 7-point shift toward Harris from the same survey a month prior, and 16 points off the real election result. 

The poll then began to spark hope among Democrats that Harris had a chance to win Iowa even though Trump had won it in 2016 and 2020. 

Although Iowa was once considered a swing state, the state is now red and hasn’t voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since re-electing Barack Obama in 2012. 

Seltzer posted on X doubling down that her departure wasn’t due to her poll miss.

“Oh, and mentions of ‘retirement’ are inaccurate. It’s been a long-time plan that this election would be my last work of this sort. Other work continues,” she said.

I'm attaching documents The Des Moines Register has made public. Oh, and mentions of "retirement" are inaccurate. It's been a long-time plan that this election would be my last work of this sort. Other work continues.

My analysis document. https://t.co/GEbTQqcSro

— J. Ann Selzer (@jaselzer) November 17, 2024

She also released a statement where she disclosed her post-mortem evaluation of the erroneous poll. 

“Since election night, I’ve worked my way through possible explanations for the dramatic difference between the final Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll that my company conducted,” Selzer wrote in her report. “To cut to the chase, I found nothing to illuminate the miss.”

She concluded by stating that her poll just failed to pick up the shift among men of color towards the president-elect since 84% of the poll’s respondents were white.

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