Ann Selzer is riding off into the
sunset. The famed pollster, long viewed as the gold standard, announced
her retirement amid a sea of controversy. Her latest poll turned out to
be atrociously wrong. It was dropped days before Election Day when the
pollster claimed that Kamala Harris had taken a three-point lead over
Donald J. Trump in Iowa. The 47-44 split was widely laughed at within
Republican circles, while her colleagues in the polling world didn’t buy
it either. Even liberal outlets were skeptical, though their headlines
painted a different picture: It sated liberals who were starved of good
news for months.
Selzer ended up being off by 14 points. Forget that the
state was Trump+18 in June—we would’ve seen the erosion throughout the
summer. Democrats would have been pouring mountains of cash into this
contest, and Kamala would’ve visited the state more—none of that
happened because Iowa was never in play. This isn’t 2008 and 2012, where
Democrats won the state by healthy margins. I don’t know what Ann was
thinking, but if this was her last hurrah, then so be it (via Politico):
Two
weeks after her firm incorrectly found Vice President Kamala Harris
surging in increasingly red Iowa, pollster J. Ann Selzer said Sunday she
is leaving election polling and ending her longstanding relationship
with the Des Moines Register, which dates back to 1997.
“Over a
year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract
expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures
and opportunities,” Selzer wrote in an op-ed for the newspaper.
[…]
“Would
I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with
Election Day results? Of course,” Selzer wrote. “It’s ironic that it’s
just the opposite. I am proud of the work I’ve done for the Register,
for the Detroit Free Press, for the Indianapolis Star, for Bloomberg
News and for other public and private organizations interested in
elections. They were great clients and were happy with my work.”
The
Iowa poll has taken on a near-mythical status over the past two
decades, mostly driven by the state’s role in the presidential
nominating process. It was the only survey to nail the order of
Democratic candidates in the 2004 caucuses. Selzer’s final poll before
the 2008 caucuses accurately predicted that a surge of first-time
caucus-goers would propel Barack Obama to a decisive victory.
Selzer saw former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum’s surge in the final days before the 2012 GOP caucuses when few others did.
BREAKING:
Trump calls for investigation into disgraced Iowa pollster Ann Selzer
after her pre-Election Day poll showed Harris leading the state by 3
points.
"She knew exactly what she was doing.... An investigation is fully called for!" pic.twitter.com/OTCCldrBqb
She
won’t be allowed to leave quietly, however. President-elect Donald J.
Trump demands an investigation into why Selzer’s poll was so inaccurate.
She had the equivalent of Dan Marino’s last game with this poll.
Gannett, which publishes the Des Moines Register, is conducting an
internal audit into the survey. Yet, many suspect that it was dropped as
a liberal media propaganda operation, which, frankly, wouldn’t be all
that surprising.
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