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For now, it’s an outlier poll, but one was bound to appear: Emerson shows the Democrats with a double-digit lead in the generic poll. Democrats flipped the House in 2018, even though the polls showed a D+7-9 margin. That margin must stay below five points for the GOP to have a real shot. Still, as of now, the GOP is in a position where it could potentially hold the House majority. Regardless, things are tight. A slight tweak in the political landscape could tilt the balance, and the president knows the stakes. It’s why he had a meeting with his top operatives, and it was not a moment too soon (via Axios):
There’s also a lot of Democratic bloodsports happening within their own ranks. Progressive factions are demanding accountability at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for interfering in primaries, there’s ongoing drama in Maine, and the socialist insurgency isn’t helping, especially as Democrats are practically broke at worst and unable to devote enough resources to defend quality Democrats against DSA challengers. If Trump can finish this Iran business quickly, get gas prices to drop, and slightly improve his numbers, it’ll bode well. The other issue that could derail things is the looming spending fight: you know Democrats want a shutdown, and at the moment, the Senate’s slow walking, dithering, and abject incompetence could make that reality. |


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