Democrats Officially Hit the Panic Button in New Hampshire Senate Race

A couple of weeks ago, RedState reported on how the New Hampshire Senate race was becoming one to keep an eye on due to how the contest was shaping up as the race prepares to enter the general election campaign season.

The primary is Tuesday, September 8th, and if the current polling bears out, we'll see former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) take on four-term Democrat Rep. Chris Pappas (NH-01) to determine who gets to fill the seat being vacated by Democrat Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who opted not to run for reelection. Shaheen defeated Sununu, who served one term, in 2008.

As we noted in our reporting, late August polling on a hypothetical matchup from the University of New Hampshire (UNH) and 7NEWS showed a tight race, "statistically tied,"  but with Sununu having a slight two-point edge, though within the margin of error.

It was significant not just because it was the first poll taken in 2026 showing Sununu ahead in a general election match-up scenario, but also because the previous UNH poll from June had Pappas ahead of Sununu by three.

Between that, a National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC)-commissioned poll that also showed Sununu with a slight edge, and the fact that the Sununu name carries a lot of weight in New Hampshire politics (dad John H. and brother Chris both served as governor), Democrats have officially hit the panic button on this race, with the New York Times reporting that "a tide of anxiety has risen" among New Hampshire Dems in recent weeks:

Mr. Pappas himself is raising the alarm and underscoring the national implications of the race. He put it bluntly in a fund-raising email on Friday morning: “We’re losing.”

[...]

On paper, New Hampshire should be easy for the Democrats to hold onto. Ms. Shaheen and Senator Maggie Hassan, the state’s other Democratic senator, were handily re-elected in 2022 and 2020. Voters there have not elected a Republican to the Senate since Kelly Ayotte, who is now the governor, was elected in 2010. The state has not backed a Republican for president since 2000.

But New Hampshire Democrats — whose main character energy has not ebbed despite being dislodged from their traditional high-profile role as host of the kickoff presidential primary — say the picture is more complicated, particularly with Mr. Sununu in it. Ms. Hassan and Ms. Shaheen faced little-known Republicans in their last races. The last time a Democrat faced a serious Republican contender, when Ms. Ayotte ran for re-election in 2016, Ms. Hassan won by just about 1,000 votes.

The Times also quoted former New Hampshire Democrat Party chairwoman Kathy Sullivan, who noted that the Granite State is "not a blue state. It’s a purple state."  It's a point that was echoed in so many words by Pappas himself in August:

"These are the only two people who have been elected as Democrats to the Senate from New Hampshire in the last half a century," Pappas told WBUR, calling the coming election "a game of inches."

Much like is being done with GOP Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, Democrats are going to do their best to use the guilt-by-association card on Sununu on the issue of President Trump, even though Sununu wasn't a senator during Trump's first term and even though Sununu, along with his dad and brother, backed Nikki Haley in the 2024 GOP presidential primary over Trump.

But Trump, perhaps realizing the importance of holding the Senate amid the rise of "democratic socialism" within the Democrat Party, seems to have made peace with it, endorsing Sununu in February, much like he gave the thumbs up to Collins in her reelection bid despite her independent streak:

Sununu has to get by former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who has had a poor showing in polling, trailing Sununu by an average of 33 points. Pappas needs to get by newcomer and self-described "peace activist" Karishma Manzur, who socialists are rallying behind. 

She has trailed Pappas by big numbers in most polling, but the UNH poll indicated she had "significantly narrowed the gap" to 13 percent, while 18 percent remained undecided.  She got this good zinger on him in the last debate:

One final thing to keep in mind is that there could be a "spoiler" candidate in this contest who has the potential to hurt Sununu:

A federal judge has cleared the way for independent U.S. Senate candidate Aaron Day to be on the ballot this November.

U.S. District Court Judge Landya B. McCafferty, in a two-page order issued Monday, ordered New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan to accept Day’s declaration of intent and "include him on the ballot if he is otherwise eligible."

The judge concluded the state’s requirement that Senate candidates be registered to vote where they live runs afoul of the U.S. Constitution and federal legal precedent.

Day admits that his goal is to hurt Sununu's chances of winning, and credits himself with former Senator (now governor) Kelly Ayotte's 2016 loss to Hassan:

Instead, he’s openly campaigning on the premise of taking away votes from Republican John E. Sununu, who polls show is leading in the GOP primary. Day’s campaign website includes a section titled “Stop Sununu,” with a large number of attack ads.

Day also played spoiler in New Hampshire's 2016 Senate race, when he received nearly 18,000 votes, enough to help defeat Republican Kelly Ayotte, who lost to then-Gov. Maggie Hassan by just over 1,000 votes. At the time, Day said he was motivated by what he saw as flaws in the Republican platform.