The Dem Advantage Heading Into the Fall Months Doesn't Show Blue Wave Potential

President Donald Trump and the GOP should be bracing for a walloping. Look, this administration has gotten a lot done, but gas prices, the lingering Iran War, and the cost of living remain salient, and the indicators are not good right now. Going against the historical tide of midterms for the party in power is a Herculean climb. But gerrymandering, and Democrats being even more unpopular than Trump and the Republicans, might offer a glimmer of hope that they could pull off an upset and retain control of Congress (via NY Post):

Democrats have a dramatically smaller lead over Republicans in the battle for control of Congress than they did at this point in the blue wave cycle of 2018 — when they won the House but failed to flip the Senate, according to new polling.

With just 44 days left to go, Democrats edged out Republicans 50% to 45% among registered voters who were asked about their generic preference for which party should control Congress, according to an NBC News poll.

That’s above the margin of error, but also much slimmer than the 12-point edge they had at this stage of the 2018 cycle, per the outlet. When the election took place, Democrats had an 8.6 percentage point popular vote edge over the GOP for the House.

It’s also lower than the 8.1-point advantage Democrats have in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of generic congressional ballot polling.

The party in control of the White House has lost seats in all but two elections since 1938. Given that, affordability concerns, and Trump’s underwater approval rating, many analysts favored Democrats to at least take control of the House.

 

In the 2018 election, the Dems also lost Senate seats — although the election map was much harder for the party that year. That year, Republicans were able to beat Democratic incumbents in Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota. Democrats picked up seats in Nevada and Arizona.

Part of the problem for Democrats is that they are viewed more negatively than the GOP, with 29% of respondents having a positive view, compared to 50% negative. For Republicans, it was 36% positive, compared to 49% negative.

It’s a base election, seasoned with asking voters ‘who sucks more, and who’s crazier'. That title belongs solely to the Democrats. Trump and the GOP need to get their act together, lower gas prices, and pass the SAVE America Act. The base does not care about procedural deference or any defense of the filibuster. It should’ve been nuked and this law signed by now, but a horde of GOP senators would rather stare Armageddon in the face and pray for a miracle.

Both parties share this mentality, to be honest: we want something that energizes us to vote, and doing nothing or clinching moral victories doesn’t cut it anymore. 

Credit:  https://townhall.com/