Poll: Talarico and Paxton tied in high-stakes Texas Senate battle

Texas has stood as a reliable conservative stronghold for decades, but the Lone Star State is now facing a high-stakes battle for the United States Senate.

According to a new Fox News survey, Ken Paxton (R-Texas) and James Talarico (D-Texas) are locked in a dead heat, both sitting at 49% among likely voters to replace Senator John Cornyn (R-Texas).

The matchup follows a hard-fought primary that put Paxton on the general election ballot, setting up a critical showdown for the future of Texas leadership.

Talarico held a 2-point lead among likely voters last month (51%–49%), but the race has since tightened into a tie. The shift comes as Paxton consolidates support among key conservative groups, including rural voters, suburban women and primary voters who initially backed Cornyn.

Although Paxton is trailing his 2024 margins, he has ticked up slightly with both men and women (+1 each) since September, whereas Talarico experienced a slight dip (-1 and -2, respectively).

Talarico holds commanding leads among Black voters (+65), urban voters (+29), voters under 30 (+28) and college-educated women (+23). Paxton’s base remains anchored by White evangelical Christians (+52), non-college-educated White men (+32), rural voters (+21) and voters 65 and older (+18).

The poll highlights a dramatic shift among Hispanic voters. After supporting Joe Biden by 25 points in 2020 and narrowly backing President Donald Trump in 2024, this pivotal bloc now favors Talarico by 30 points (64%-34%) and prefers Democratic control of the U.S. Senate by 29 points.

Overall, Texans favor Republicans for Senate control by 4 points (51% to 47%), up from a 1-point margin in September. Talarico is also benefiting from stronger party loyalty as 98% of Democrats back him, compared to 90% of Republicans supporting Paxton — with nearly 3 in 10 non-MAGA Republicans crossing over.

Talarico remains slightly in positive territory with a net +1 rating (49% favorable, 48% unfavorable), whereas Paxton is deep in the red at -17 (41% favorable, 58% unfavorable). However, among “double haters” — voters who hold negative views of both candidates — Paxton commands a massive 50-point advantage.

Ultimately, concerns about the candidates are fairly balanced. 53% of voters worry Talarico’s views are too far-left, while 50% fear Paxton is too closely aligned with Trump. The intensity of these concerns is virtually identical, with 36% extremely concerned about Talarico and 37% saying the same about Paxton.

Credit: oan.com

Comment from Bailey: "just shows you how far America has fallen when a freak like Talarico is in a tie in the Texas Senate Race."