Democrats hold polling leads in several closely watched Senate races, including five Republican-held seats, as the party seeks to overcome the GOP's 53-47 majority in the Nov. 3 midterm elections. The latest RealClearPolitics polling averages show Democratic candidates ahead in Texas, Maine, Alaska, Ohio and North Carolina, all seats currently held by Republicans. Democrats also lead in Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire, where they are defending seats. Republicans retain narrow polling advantages in Iowa and Kansas, two other contests that have become increasingly competitive. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach a 51-49 majority, assuming the two independents who caucus with them continue doing so. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, compared with 45 Democrats and two independents. North Carolina represents one of the Democrats' strongest opportunities to capture a Republican-held seat. Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley by 9.9 percentage points, 50.6%-40.7%, in the RealClearPolling average. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico holds a 1.5-point advantage over Republican Ken Paxton, 48.4%-46.9%, in a state where Republicans have dominated statewide elections for decades. Maine's contest is considerably closer. Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Sen. Susan Collins by 1.4 points, 48.8%-47.4%. Collins, who has repeatedly won reelection despite Maine's Democratic lean in presidential contests, is seeking another term in a race that could help determine Senate control. In Alaska, former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by 1.2 points, 49.4%-48.2%. Ohio offers another potential Democratic pickup. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown holds a 3.3-point advantage over Republican Sen. Jon Husted, 48.2%-44.9%, in a special election. Brown is attempting a political comeback after losing his Senate seat in 2024. Democrats also hold polling leads in three states where the party must defend existing seats. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by 1.9 points, 47.9%-46.0%, in the contest to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. All eight polls included in the current RealClearPolling average show El-Sayed ahead, although several place the candidates within a few percentage points of each other. Minnesota Democrat Peggy Flanagan holds a 3.2-point lead over Republican Michele Tafoya, 46.5%-43.3%, in the race for retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith's seat. In New Hampshire, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas has a wider advantage over Republican John E. Sununu, leading by 6.5 points, 49.5%-43.0%, in the contest for another Democratic-held seat. Republicans, meanwhile, are narrowly ahead in two races that have attracted increased attention. In Iowa, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson leads Democrat Josh Turek by just 0.6 points, 46.1%-45.5%. An InsiderAdvantage survey conducted Oct. 21-22 gave Hinson a two-point advantage, while an earlier Marist poll showed Turek ahead by three points. Kansas presents an even narrower polling margin. Republican Sen. Roger Marshall leads Democrat Adam Hamilton by 0.3 points, 46.0%-45.7%, in a state that has traditionally favored Republicans. The Senate math leaves Democrats with little room for losses in states they already control. Capturing four Republican-held seats while successfully defending their existing seats would give them a 51-49 majority. For example, Democratic victories in North Carolina, Texas, Maine, and Alaska would be enough to flip control if the party also holds its other seats. Ohio offers another potential pickup. Several of the contests remain within typical polling margins of error, however, and the averages reflect voter preferences before Election Day rather than guaranteed outcomes. © 2026 Newsmax. All rights reserved. |
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