Texas Poll: Talarico, Abbott Lead, but Race Tight

Democrat James Talarico holds a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton in Texas' U.S. Senate race, while Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa in his reelection bid, according to a University of Houston poll released Monday.

The Hobby School of Public Affairs survey found Talarico leading Paxton 48% to 46%, with Libertarian Ted Brown receiving 3% and another 3% undecided.

Abbott leads Hinojosa 49% to 46%, with Libertarian Pat Dixon receiving 2% and 3% undecided.

Both races are within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 2.19 percentage points, underscoring the competitive political environment in a state where Republicans have dominated statewide elections for more than three decades.

The survey of 2,000 likely Texas voters was conducted Oct. 10-14, ahead of early voting beginning Monday for the Nov. 3 midterm elections.

Despite Talarico's narrow Senate advantage, Republicans lead in all seven other statewide contests surveyed.

Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick leads Democrat Vikki Goodwin 47% to 42%, while Republican attorney general candidate Mayes Middleton holds an identical 47%-42% advantage over Democrat Nathan Johnson.

Republican comptroller candidate Don Huffines leads Democrat Sarah Eckhardt 47% to 40%, while Republican Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham leads Democrat Benjamin Flores by the same margin.

 

Republican agriculture commissioner candidate Nate Sheets leads Democrat Clayton Tucker 46% to 40%, while Republican railroad commissioner candidate Bo French holds a narrower 45%-43% advantage over Democrat Jon Rosenthal.

The Senate race reveals significant divisions among voters.

Paxton leads Talarico among rural voters, 64% to 27%, and among voters 55 and older, 58% to 38%.

Talarico holds a 60%-36% advantage among urban voters and leads among voters ages 18-34, 71% to 19%.

The Democrat also leads among independents, 60% to 32%, while Paxton receives support from 88% of Republicans, compared with Talarico's 98% support among Democrats.

President Donald Trump remains a major factor in the Senate contest.

Among Paxton supporters, 59% said their vote was in support of Trump, while 68% of Talarico supporters said their vote was in opposition to the president.

The survey also found widespread support for election security measures.

An overwhelming 86% of likely Texas voters support requiring photo identification to vote in person, while 70% expressed confidence that the November election would be conducted fairly and accurately.

The findings suggest Republicans remain competitive across the statewide ballot, although the closely watched Senate contest could depend on turnout and the remaining undecided voters.

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